McKinsey: AI Ad Economy Shifts: 75% of Advertisers Expect Spend Rise

McKinsey’s June 2026 analysis shows three AI shifts already redistributing value across advertising.

Three-quarters of surveyed advertisers expect AI to lift total media spend, with one-third forecasting at least a 10% ROAS increase.

More than 50% say AI has already reshaped discovery and consideration. Over 50% of Google searches now surface AI overviews, while 20-50% of traditional open-web search traffic is projected at risk by 2030.

Attention is consolidating fast. More than 50% of Instagram content viewed and over 95% of TikTok watch time come from algorithmic feeds.

Meta reported AI recommendations boosted Facebook time spent 5% in Q3 2025 and U.S. Instagram Reels watch time over 30% year-over-year.

On the buy side, more than 90% of advertisers already use AI for planning, budgeting, targeting, and creative.

Early AI shopping agents have delivered up to 60% higher conversion rates, with 10-35% of e-commerce transactions potentially flowing through AI-native experiences soon.

Spending patterns are changing. Roughly 40% of reallocated AI-driven spend is moving from traditional search and the open web toward platforms offering stronger data, measurement, and transaction capabilities.

Direct buying, which nearly tripled from 2019 to early 2024, is accelerating as advertisers bypass agencies and intermediaries. 82% plan to buy AI ad formats directly in the next 12 months. Forty-two percent flag “black box optimization” reliance as a top risk.

Four trajectories are emerging: steady AI evolution, closed-web concentration, autonomous agent delegation, or a curated publisher/retailer coalition.

Across all paths, platforms bundling discovery, data, measurement, and transactions are positioned to capture disproportionate value while intermediaries face compression.

Actions to Take

Leaders should stress-test exposure across the four futures, quantify which value pools are expanding versus shrinking, identify hard-to-replicate differentiation (data, signals, relationships), and build roadmaps for speed.

• Agencies: Shift from execution to orchestration, governance, and outcome-linked pricing; invest in proprietary AI assets and brand-safety services rather than relying on short-term advisory work.

• Ad tech: Double down on neutral clean-room measurement, cross-platform identity, and independent AI performance audits as walled gardens build internal infrastructure.

• Publishers: Prioritize generative engine optimization, content licensing to AI platforms, or joining authenticated audience coalitions instead of pure scale/impression plays.

• Commerce media networks: Build agent-readable product feeds, conversational shopping, and closed-loop measurement tied to verified sales lift across online and in-store.

• Walled gardens & AI-native platforms: Decide how far to extend into commerce and agent-driven transactions while testing sponsored answers and affiliate models.

The players who control data, decision models, and transaction visibility will increasingly set the terms. Those who don’t risk competing on compressed margins inside ecosystems they don’t influence.